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Scott White

I White; You Read

Name: Scott White | Gender: M | Member Since February 8, 2008
Current Level: Superstar | Email: Private
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Posted on: July 3, 2008 7:21 pm

Santana, Bruce, Crawford -- Buy or Sell

You know, I wanted to pull out a regular feature today -- the one where I examine the top players traded in CBSSports.com Fantasy leagues (I'm thinking of calling it Buy or Sell) -- but I don't want to end up talking about the same cast of characters. You've probably gotten tired of hearing "Justin Verlander will come around eventually." I know I've gotten tired of saying it. Stop trading Verlander, people.

Oh look. They have. Guess we can revisit the tried-and-true after all.

Johan Santana
Santana has gotten a lot of negative attention in Fantasy this season. I blame disgruntled Mets fans who built him into something he isn't. He is perhaps the best pitcher in baseball. He isn't a one-man team. In short, the Mets have problems, but none of them involve Santana. Has the two-time Cy Young winner disappointed Fantasy-wise? Maybe a little. I'd expect more than a .500 record, and his 1.22 WHIP seems a little high. But why did everyone all at once decide he no longer fits the description of a second-half pitcher? He had a 3.98 ERA in the first half of 2005 and a 3.78 ERA in the first half of 2004, the first year he won the Cy Young. Compared to those years, his current numbers look like an improvement, and I still can't think of a pitcher I'd want more in Fantasy. Consider me among the buyers.

Aaron Harang
I think we all know why Harang ended up on this list. He pitched like a drunk in June, compiling a 6.00 ERA -- his worst for a single month since 2005. Still, he hasn't walked an unreasonably high number of batters, and he continues to rack up strikeouts. I wouldn't view his June (and in fairness, end of May) as anything more than a longer version of his usual cold streaks. Yes, he has a few every year. Why else would his ERA end up on the wrong side of 3.50? Count me among the buyers.

Jay Bruce
Well, I would have counted myself among the sellers back when Bruce had a batting average over .500 and a three-game homer streak. I remember advising a co-worker who owned him back then and wanted to trade him. He managed to fleece another owner in his league for John Lackey in a one-for-one trade. I might have settled for A.J. Burnett, personally, but the guy had the diligence to find an even better deal. Good for him. Actually, great for him. I can't remember the last time I saw the sell-high strategy executed to such perfection. On Wednesday, Bruce hit two home runs, and he has his batting average up near .300 again. Another hot streak looks on the horizon. If you wait just a little longer for when he gets burning-hot again, you might snag a Lackey for him. So yes, I'd still sell on Bruce, but wait a little while first.

Carl Crawford
Crawford hasn't hit below .300 in a season since 2004, but he hasn't finished a game with a batting average that high since April 27. Still, a quick look at his situational stats from the past few years shows his performance this year doesn't come without precedent. He hit .285 before the break last year and finished at .315. He hit .284 before the break in 2005 and finished at .301. I don't remember any widespread panic either of those years. His slugging percentage has lagged a bit, but he's still on pace for 15 homers. If you can find someone willing to sell low, which I assume the buyers in these cases have, I'd buy.

Jake Peavy
I generally don't make a habit of buying pitchers with arm issues, and Peavy missed time earlier this season with a strained right elbow. I suppose this one really depends on the price tag. Peavy still has the stuff to finish as the best pitcher in Fantasy, so I'd obviously want him, but I don't think I'd trade Ben Sheets for him. I certainly wouldn't trade John Lackey or Cole Hamels for him. Mark Teixeira? No. Jimmy Rollins? No. If I can get Peavy for a bargain, I'd do it. Otherwise, I can't justify the risk for a pitcher who probably won't even win many games pitching for the lowly Padres. On the flip side, I wouldn't settle for anything less than the guys I just mentioned if I owned Peavy and wanted to trade him.

Adam Dunn
Dunn has delivered the home runs as always, his 21 putting him on pace for exactly 40 for the fourth straight season. His batting average looks pretty rough at .223, but can you honestly expect much more? Sure, he hit .264 last year, but he hit .234 in 2006 and .247 in 2005. If you can't handle the drain on your batting average, then you can't handle owning Dunn. Find someone who thinks he can rebound to hit .260 and sell.

That's all for now.
Posted on: July 2, 2008 7:04 pm
Edited on: July 2, 2008 7:07 pm

Capps creates a closer conundrum

In my last blog, I talked about trading away two closers in a Rotisserie league where my lead in saves contributed to my lead overall.

I acquired Takashi Saito in a separate deal to soften the blow and figured I could stand to drop a spot or two in the category for as much as the trade helped me in others. The plan was all fine and good and seemingly worth the risk except it relied heavily on my continued use of Matt Capps -- the same Matt Capps who we all learned Wednesday will miss the next two months with a shoulder injury.

Not good.

Suddenly, I find myself in a position no first-place team should -- scrambling. In the span of a few days, I went from having four closers (Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde, B.J. Ryan and Capps) with a combined 77 saves to two closers (Saito and Ryan) with a combined 29. That kind of turnover would drop me a spot or two in the category in a period of weeks, not months.

So I need a quick fix, a band-aid of sorts to act as my third closer until the real one returns. The obvious choice would be the reliever replacing Capps for the Pirates, but then again, the Pirates haven't made that reliever so obvious. Damaso Marte has the stuff for the role and even had consecutive seasons with 10 saves or more in his earlier days with the White Sox. Then again, he also pitches left-handed, and managers typically avoid using left-handed setup men as closers -- especially ones with splits like Marte, who has a 2.19 ERA against left-handed batters compared to a 4.13 ERA against right-handed batters. Of course, he's actually surrendered a lower batting average (.212) to right-handers, but so many managers feel safer going by the book and then picking an isolated statistic later to defend their rationale. Still, the waiver wire doesn't have any real closers to offer, so I'll make a small bid for Marte.

The better prize is Dan Wheeler. His statistics (1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP) and experience with Houston last year suggest he can handle the role, and considering the Rays will take their time with Troy Percival after he aggravated the same hamstring injury from earlier, Wheeler might buy me as much as a month. I wouldn't call him a No. 1 or 2 Fantasy closer with Percival sidelined -- and he might only keep the job for two weeks -- but with no legitimate closers on the waiver wire, he's a no-brainer addition.

Of course, if anyone in the league outbids me in the FAAB process for either of these guys tonight, I'll have to resort to Plan B, which probably involves me making another trade. I fully expect Jason Isringhausen to keep the closer role once he regains it, but his owner in this league might have grown tired of waiting out his slow return to ninth-inning duty and part with him for cheap. Sounds like a prime target to me.

That's all for now.
Category: MLB
Posted on: June 30, 2008 6:25 pm

Worth the risk in first place?

Since pretty much the first day of the season, I've had the lead in the Magazine League, a Rotisserie league between 12 of us here in the office. I've dropped to second or third a few times, but never for long and probably not since early May.

So when I've made trades, I've made them carefully, not wanting to risk harming a team that might run away with the title even on autopilot. I've swung deals of the 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 variety, trading away bench excess to upgrade at one position or another.

Because by upgrading without losing anything, I don't risk anything, and why risk anything when I don't have to?

It seems like a logical philosophy and one I normally adhere to, but I also don't live in a dream world. I know my team has room for improvement, and I don't discount any trade that addresses its needs. I have the lead or close to the lead in batting average, home runs, runs, RBI, strikeouts and saves, but I sit in the middle of the pack in stolen bases, wins, ERA and WHIP.

So when newcomer Jeff Lippman took over a team for a departed owner and wanted to improve his lot right away, he knew how to get my attention. He proposed the following trade:

I give
OF Vladimir Guerrero
RP Jose Valverde
RP Joakim Soria

I get
OF Carl Crawford
SP Josh Beckett
3B Chone Figgins

Beckett, because he throws so many innings as starter, would impact my ERA and WHIP more than a reliever would, and he'd obviously give me some wins pitching for Red Sox. Meanwhile, Crawford has underperformed a bit and Figgins has spent a large percentage of the season on the DL, but both have 50-steal potential. That kind of upgrade could vault me from the fifth or sixth in a category to first in a matter of weeks. I'd lose some power in dealing Guerrero, but probably not as much this year as in years past.

The bigger risk comes with dealing Valverde and Soria. I've built up a five-save lead by starting four closers instead of the usual two or three. Going from four closers to two and losing all those saves to get a few stolen bases seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul. It's simply too much of a risk for a first-place team to take.

Unless that first-place team makes a supplemental trade to patch the hole it intends to create.

So I looked for a team already out of the race in saves -- one that wouldn't mind giving up a closer to address its needs in more hotly-contested categories. I didn't care which closer I got; I just wanted to make sure I still had a source of saves. I found Takashi Saito -- an underachiever so far -- on Dave Richard's team, which had a couple of gaping holes in its outfield. I quickly packaged Randy Winn and Matt Garza -- two players on my bench -- for Saito and Frank Thomas, someone I can stash on my DL who might eventually help offset the power I lose in Guerrero. I think Richard technically got the "better end" of the deal, but I wanted something quick so I didn't keep Lippman waiting. Besides, I have a hard time believing I'll miss either Winn or Garza, two players I plucked off waivers several weeks into the season.

So with Saito ready to step in as my third closer, I made the deal -- a first-place team giving up home runs, RBI and saves for stolen bases, runs and wins. Could the trade backfire and do more harm than good? Absolutely, it could. But based on the amount I stand to improve in the categories I trail in the most, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to give myself a bigger cushion.

That's all for now.
Category: MLB
Posted on: June 29, 2008 3:14 am
Edited on: June 29, 2008 3:18 am