Look ...
Jake Westbrook -- see all those crazy stats he's putting up this spring? The zero earned runs through 14 innings? The five hits allowed? The 16 strikeouts?
Stop looking.
Turn off your monitor if you have to. I won't mind. I'd rather the rest of my words fall on deaf ears than you put in a claim for Westbrook, thinking he's somehow going to save your Fantasy season. It ain't gonna happen. And his six shutout innings against the Braves on Monday aren't going to change my mind.
Westbrook's monster spring is the exact reason so many Fantasy experts tell you not to pay one bit of attention to spring statistics. Oh, some of them might mean something, sure, but if you open the door to interpretation, too many people aren't going to know where to draw the line.
Westbrook is 30 years old. He's been a full-time major-league starter for the better part of five seasons now, and we know exactly what he does. He posts an ERA above 4.00, a WHIP of around 1.400 and a strikeout rate of less than five batters per nine innings. Unless you play in an AL-only league, where any serviceable starting pitcher becomes a useful member of a Fantasy staff, you don't want those numbers in Fantasy.
Why would this year be any different? Why would a pitcher with a track record like Westbrook's suddenly emerge as a Fantasy ace? Did he learn a new pitch? Did he just discover he was left-handed and throwing with the wrong arm all along? Is there a fountain of pitching dominance hidden in the lowlands of the Ohio River?
Transformations like that just don't happen. With the exception of Esteban Loaiza in 2003 -- and what has he done since? -- veteran pitchers don't go from serviceable to studly overnight. They don't. I promise. Chris Carpenter didn't have Westbrook's track record when he broke out. Neither did Dave Bush (if he ever did qualify as studly).
Westbrook got hot -- it's as simple as that. He'll get hot again during the season. Then, he'll get cold. Then, he might get hot again. Then cold. The point is his stats should even out to their norms by season's end.
So if you want to put in a waiver claim for Westbrook, I won't stop you. Hey, he should win a few games for the Indians, if nothing else. But if you grab him, grab him for his career numbers, not his spring numbers.
That's all for now.
Westbrook not worth the look
Posted on: March 25, 2008 2:16 am
Edited on: May 8, 2008 7:51 pm
Comments
Reputation: 61
Level: Pro Since: Mar 29, 2008 
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Posted on: March 29, 2008 8:23 am
Westbrook not worth the lookActually Westbrook did learn a new pitch (kind of a splitter) and started using it last Sep. You can see the increase in Ks from his games in that month. My guess is that he did not feel comfortable to use it enough in the play offs, but now had the time during the off-season to refine it. He is definitely a speculative pick, who could turn in huge profits. |
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Reputation: 99
Level: Superstar Since: Feb 8, 2008
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Posted on: March 29, 2008 4:45 pm
Westbrook not worth the lookHe did strike out more batters in September, but he also allowed a batting average of .309. |
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Reputation: 61
Level: Pro Since: Mar 29, 2008
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Posted on: April 3, 2008 8:32 am
Westbrook not worth the lookLet us look at it this way. We have one sample with a set constraints. We have the evidence that there is a new constraint, a constraint that could change things up, if true. What value does the first set of sample (even if the sample size is huge) has in predicting how the second set performs? The only thing it does is set the floor, in this case. Nothing more, nothing less. In Westbrook's case, you pay the price for last year stats and take the free option that he is going to be way, way better. So, in my book, he is a definite pickup. It is not like we are picking up Miller from Florida, who could hurt you with nasty ratios... Here are quotes from Buster Olney in two of his recent Blogs that support the evidence of a new pitch (and a new constraint): ---- Some Braves raved about the Indians' Jake Westbrook, who has become the rare bread-and-butter sinker baller who ascends to something much greater than that, by implementing an improved changeup. For years, Westbrook has been a pitcher who has pitched to contact and gotten a lot of ground balls, and this spring, he is missing bats. "The best we've ever seen him," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. ----- Wrote here Monday that the Braves' hitters had very good things to say about the Indians' Jake Westbrook and the changeup that they say has transformed him, in spring training, from a ham-and-egg sinkerballer into a big-time swing-and-miss pitcher. Consider that for his career, Westbrook has averaged 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings in his eight-year career. His numbers from this spring: 18 innings, 20 strikeouts, a 0.00 ERA, with opponents' hitting .190. ----- |
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Reputation: 97
Level: Superstar Since: Feb 23, 2008
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Posted on: April 12, 2008 3:02 pm
Westbrook not worth the lookjatmlb, bringing the pain. Keep it up!! Baseball Jones ~~ Hustling since 1980 |
