Since pretty much the first day of the season, I've had the lead in the Magazine League, a Rotisserie league between 12 of us here in the office. I've dropped to second or third a few times, but never for long and probably not since early May.
So when I've made trades, I've made them carefully, not wanting to risk harming a team that might run away with the title even on autopilot. I've swung deals of the 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 variety, trading away bench excess to upgrade at one position or another.
Because by upgrading without losing anything, I don't risk anything, and why risk anything when I don't have to?
It seems like a logical philosophy and one I normally adhere to, but I also don't live in a dream world. I know my team has room for improvement, and I don't discount any trade that addresses its needs. I have the lead or close to the lead in batting average, home runs, runs, RBI, strikeouts and saves, but I sit in the middle of the pack in stolen bases, wins, ERA and WHIP.
So when newcomer Jeff Lippman took over a team for a departed owner and wanted to improve his lot right away, he knew how to get my attention. He proposed the following trade:
I give
OF Vladimir Guerrero
RP Jose Valverde
RP Joakim Soria
I get
OF Carl Crawford
SP Josh Beckett
3B Chone Figgins
Beckett, because he throws so many innings as starter, would impact my ERA and WHIP more than a reliever would, and he'd obviously give me some wins pitching for Red Sox. Meanwhile, Crawford has underperformed a bit and Figgins has spent a large percentage of the season on the DL, but both have 50-steal potential. That kind of upgrade could vault me from the fifth or sixth in a category to first in a matter of weeks. I'd lose some power in dealing Guerrero, but probably not as much this year as in years past.
The bigger risk comes with dealing Valverde and Soria. I've built up a five-save lead by starting four closers instead of the usual two or three. Going from four closers to two and losing all those saves to get a few stolen bases seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul. It's simply too much of a risk for a first-place team to take.
Unless that first-place team makes a supplemental trade to patch the hole it intends to create.
So I looked for a team already out of the race in saves -- one that wouldn't mind giving up a closer to address its needs in more hotly-contested categories. I didn't care which closer I got; I just wanted to make sure I still had a source of saves. I found Takashi Saito -- an underachiever so far -- on Dave Richard's team, which had a couple of gaping holes in its outfield. I quickly packaged Randy Winn and Matt Garza -- two players on my bench -- for Saito and Frank Thomas, someone I can stash on my DL who might eventually help offset the power I lose in Guerrero. I think Richard technically got the "better end" of the deal, but I wanted something quick so I didn't keep Lippman waiting. Besides, I have a hard time believing I'll miss either Winn or Garza, two players I plucked off waivers several weeks into the season.
So with Saito ready to step in as my third closer, I made the deal -- a first-place team giving up home runs, RBI and saves for stolen bases, runs and wins. Could the trade backfire and do more harm than good? Absolutely, it could. But based on the amount I stand to improve in the categories I trail in the most, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to give myself a bigger cushion.
That's all for now.
Worth the risk in first place?
Posted on: June 30, 2008 6:25 pm
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