Scott White

You might notice I have a blog entry on Thursday for, by my recollection, the first time ever. Yes, getting a three-day "weekend" last week means I get a one-day "weekend" this week, which means I have to work on Lost day. But I have a second and third VCR set up to record it, so I'm cool.

Although that's an ironic way to put it.

Anyway, I thought I'd take a moment here to address some of the feedback I've received over my recent entries on trading, starting with a blog comment from CBSSports.com user "tweedy."

"I love your trade philosophy. I have tons of studs on my team, but I'm always looking to tinker. I accused half of my league of being "hand sitters" and throw in zingers like "well, losing in the first round of the playoffs every year might be good enough for you, but I'm looking to win it all." What do you think of a Head-to-Head trade of John Smoltz, Greg Smith and Clayton Kershaw (his dudes) for my B.J. Ryan, Joe Saunders and Oliver Perez? I'm thinking Smoltz will replace Ryan, Saunders is at peak value and Kershaw is due to come up soon. The guy is a Mets fan, and he's getting two starters he can use now and a closer that just had the training wheels taken off. Basically, is Saunders this good, and is Smith for real?"

See, I'm not so sure you have a clear advantage in that deal. The Dodgers are handling Kershaw with kid gloves, so I have a feeling the 20-year-old won't get a call-up before September. Ryan might have just lost his training wheels, but at least he's healthy. I don't know if I can say the same for Smoltz. The guy clearly loved starting, so I think him so quickly volunteering to move to the bullpen suggests he had no choice. If he's too hurt to start, might he also discover he's too hurt to close a week or two into trying? Smith-for-Saunders is almost a wash. Both are unproven, and I actually think Smith has more upside. So basically, I think you're giving up Perez for nothing but a riskier closer. How's that a good move?

Next, I'll answer an e-mail from Robert Brooks.

"I am going to pick up Greg Smith and drop Jeremy Bonderman. What do you think of this choice? Also, do you know who I could pick up in place of Michael Bourn? I mean, I need his steals but his batting average is hurting my team average."

Smith is a popular guy these days, isn't he? I guess that'll happen when you have a 2.54 ERA through six starts and you're going seven or eight innings most of the time. He has more walks than strikeouts and is on pace for only 101 of the latter, and we're talking about a guy who struck out over 200 batters as recently as 2006. I have a hard time believing the pinched cartilage in his elbow that caused him to blow up in the second half last year isn't somehow related. Yeah, I'd make that exchange.

I mostly wanted to answer this e-mail because I recently traded Bourn in a deal Gonos mentioned in his blog. I gave up Micah Owings, Stephen Drew and Bourn for Rafael Furcal. I originally offered Owings and Drew and, when it didn't go through, decided Bourn wouldn't be such a loss for the exact reasons you mentioned. You can't write his batting average off to a slow start anymore. It's .195 in early May and steadily getting worse. At this point, I wonder how long the Astros will keep him in their lineup, considering his main contribution is steals and an inability to get on base renders it meaningless. He also hasn't stolen a base since hurting his groin April 21 -- a span of 11 games. In other words, I feel like I was actually selling high on Bourn, if you can believe it, and I'd suggest you try to do the same rather than simply cutting him.

I was able to add Furcal, of course, and grab Randy Winn off waivers to compensate for the loss of steals. If you need to look deeper, I wouldn't totally sleep on Scott Podsednik. He won't get many at-bats, but when the Rockies use him, he'll steal bases for sure.

And finally, I'll field one from a somewhat fed-up Gerry Nason.

"I've noticed in my leagues that owners are placing way too much priority on prospects. Way too much! Yes, prospects are fun to watch grow, and they give you that warm fuzzy feeling of building a dynasty. However, prospects can also be dangerous when you overvalue them to the point you are trading established vets to acquire them. In three of my leagues, prospects are all the rage, and the fad is to stock your minor-league system with nothing but the best. However, due to media hype, expectations are way out of line versus reality. Most of these media darlings will not reach the lofty goals projected for them. For every Ryan J. Braun, there are twenty guys like Anthony Reyes. Phil Hughes, Jason Hirsh, Brandon Wood, Delmon Young, half the Marlins' pitching staff -- there are too many to name that have not lived up to the hype for one reason or another. I know it is your job to build these kids up and sell them as the future of the game, but I think that owners need to be cautioned that the game is won and lost in the present and trading top players for a package of prospects not only kills the competitive balance in your league, it in no way guarantees you of getting a good player."

Without commenting on each of the players you named, Gerry -- some of which I wouldn't yet pass final judgment on -- I tend to agree with you. Too many Fantasy owners bank too heavily on the unknown. Prospects are fine as late-round fliers or last-second free-agent pickups just to see what they can do, but you don't want to stash them and wait because -- like you said -- you might end up waiting for nothing.

In only two types of leagues would I recommend stashing prospects:
1. Long-term keeper leagues where you have to maintain a minor-league system (and even then, I'd make it an afterthought compared to my major-league roster).
2. Deep AL- or NL-only leagues where the concept of free agency is virtually meaningless, making every call-up the only real chance you have to improve your team (other than trading, of course).

That's all for now

I'll depart from The Observations for at least one night -- hopefully more -- to try my hand at a little trade analysis. And I figured why not look at some of my own? My point here isn't to make you care about any of my leagues, but to demonstrate what kind of trades I like to make and explain my incentive for making them.

12-team, AL-only Rotisserie:
I got:                                 I gave:
Eric Hinske                     Kevin Millwood

League formats don't get much deeper than this one, so you can pretty much eliminate free agency as a way to improve your team. Tired of my mediocre starting pitchers dragging down my WHIP and ERA, I decided to embrace the use of middle relievers and deal some of those mediocre starting pitchers for help on offense. An opponent advertised a need for starting pitching, so I pounced when Millwood still had a relatively low ERA, nabbing Hinske to replace Willie Bloomquist as my fifth outfielder (again, deep league). I wouldn't call this trade the most exciting in the world, but it got the ball rolling for me and fit into my altered strategy.

12-team, mixed Rotisserie:
I got:                                 I gave:
Vladimir Guerrero         John Maine
                                         Jermaine Dye
                                         Chad Gaudin

This kind of trade is my trademark -- one not made out of need, but simply for the gratuitous betterment of my team. When a lesser man would rest on his laurels while in a position of strength -- with a comfortable lead and an overkill of talent on his bench -- I swoop in for the deathblow. I had too many pitchers and thought Maine might end up doing more harm than good for my WHIP, so I used him to upgrade from Dye to Guerrero. Simple as that. Gaudin was a last-minute throw-in and probably not a deal-breaker either way.

10-team, mixed Head-to-Head:
I got:                                I gave:
Justin Verlander           Micah Owings
                                         Dustin McGowan

I made this trade with the same fundamental approach as the previous one, but with the added wrinkle of buying low on Verlander and selling high on Owings. It wasn't the easiest deal to make emotionally because I liked Owings as a sleeper going into the season. And you know how it is with sleepers. When you get one right, you feel bonded to him somehow. But you can't let that emotional investment get in the way of improving your team, and I didn't here. Owings had a 4-0 record at the time but had only once lasted seven innings and only once struck out more than a batter per inning. Since then, he has an ERA of 9.28 in two starts. I only wish I could have coupled him with someone other than McGowan, who has since gone crazy.

10-team, AL-only Head-to-Head:
I got:                                 I gave:
Justin Verlander            B.J. Ryan
Carlos Guillen               Julio Lugo
Joba Chamberlain       Gil Meche
                                         Kevin Millwood

You can tell I have faith in Verlander, can't you? Before the season, Emack, Gonos and I all picked him to win the AL Cy Young, and we did so in separate, soundproof rooms without conferring beforehand. You can also tell I wanted to sell high on Millwood. No way this trade goes through if I made it after his start Monday, when he allowed seven earned runs in three innings. Otherwise, I wanted to build the best offense in the league and felt like my only hole was at shortstop, where Guillen represents a vast improvement over Lugo (for good measure, I was dealing with a Red Sox fan). I also wanted to buy low on Chamberlain before he becomes a starting pitcher, which I predict will happen about a month from now.

10-team, mixed Head-to-Head:
I got:                                 I gave:
Brian Fuentes                Jermaine Dye

I don't often make one-for-one trades, so when I do, I usually have a specific need to fill and can't worry so much about getting a competitive advantage. In this league -- one where all the teams start two closers -- I had the bad fortune of drafting both Rafael Soriano and Manny Corpas. And then I compounded the problem by putting my chips in Rafael Betancourt instead of Fuentes. My hands were tied. But I feel like I controlled the damage by targeting an owner who had stashed five closers -- probably to take advantage of a sucker like me -- and I didn't consider Dye too much of a loss in a shallow league that rewards walks and penalizes strikeouts.

That's all for now.

I try not to unleash The Observations on back-to-back days. I sometimes fail.

Daisuke Matsuzaka walked eight Tigers on Monday, which is fine if he works in the circus, but disgusting otherwise. With 27 walks and 40 2/3 innings, he has to be the most discouraging 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in the history of this fine sport.

So ... Mike Lowell collected his first RBI on May 5, which puts him well off the pace of the 120 he had last year. Yeah, don't expect him to hit higher than .285 either.

With the demotion of Jacque Jones, Gary Sheffield moved to left field, saying he felt uncomfortable at DH. If he keeps starting there, you have to love the added versatility. Of course, it won't mean anything if he doesn't start hitting higher better than .183.

Dustin McGowan has allowed four hits in 7 1/3 innings in each of his last two starts. If that doesn't get you excited, you must have cut him prematurely.

Javier Vazquez came within one out of joining the Roy Halladay club. You know what I mean.

I still don't know what to make of Ryan Dempster. He didn't allow an earned run at Cincinnati, which is good, but he allowed five unearned runs, which should count against him somehow. Then again, with five baserunners and seven strikeouts in six innings, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Victor Martinez is looking like a poor man's Geovany Soto. The latter homered again Monday and actually raised his average to .352.

If you want to get back to trusting Johnny Cueto after his eight strikeouts in six innings, I won't blame you. But I can only get so excited about a performance that yields a 4.50 ERA.

Ervin Santana pitched a shutout, and he didn't do it in home whites. He didn't do it in any kind of alternate uniform either. He wore GRAY. I think we've witnessed the birth of a new Fantasy ace.

Scott Podsednik got a second straight start in center field. With six stolen bases already, he's not a bad desperation type for Rotisserie leagues. Just remember you're using him strictly for steals.

Yeah, Max Scherzer didn't look so hot against the Phillies, but don't bail on him yet. He still struck out five in four innings and no doubt had a lot of nervous energy. He might lose his spot in the rotation once Doug Davis returns, but you have to hang on to him if only to see what happens. He has way too much talent.

Dana Eveland gave up three hits in seven shutout innings against the Orioles, giving the Athletics no clear choice to bump from the rotation once Rich Harden returns. Surely, they won't send Greg Smith to the minors. Any chance they bounce Justin Duchscherer back to the bullpen?

That's all for now.