I realize I haven't written in a couple days. My weekends work a little differently than most people's. But hey, at least I got my Tiers entry a few more looks. (I'll have to keep renewing that post or something.)
Today, I wanted to examine a few early spring statistics that I think have an impact in Fantasy. I think we all know by now not to put too much stock into spring statistics. Players tend to play themselves into shape during the spring and care less about performing well as getting ready to perform well. I got it. But at the same time, they do have significance in the right circumstances. They might offer a glimpse at a breakout for a young, developing player or a tip of the scales in a position battle.
So here's a look at five players whose performances have caught my attention in the last few days.
OF Steve Pearce, Pirates
This soon-to-be 25-year-old demonstrated great power in the minors without the kind of crazy strikeout rates that keep some big sluggers from realizing their potential in the bigs. And so far, his heavy hitting has carried over into the spring. He's tied for the league lead with three home runs, doing so while hitting .304 and slugging .783. The Pirates clearly want to give him looks, too: He leads the team with 23 at-bats. We know Xavier Nady is nothing special in right field, so with the Pirates not expected to compete this year, why wouldn't they give this kid a chance instead? Grab Pearce in NL-only leagues.
SP Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
Sonnanstine's statistics kind of veer the other way, toward the negative. After impressing off and on in a few starts late last year, he entered 2008 as a favorite to win one of the final two spots in the Rays rotation. Yet so far in three appearances, he's worked no more than an inning and has yet to make a start. I don't get it. Coming into the spring, I liked this guy as my favorite deep sleeper starting pitcher in the AL (to go along with Jason Bergmann in the NL), but the Rays aren't stretching him like they would an intended starter. Do they want him in the bullpen? I'd still consider drafting him because you don't have much to lose for as late as you could take him, but I don't feel as good about his chances now.
RP Carlos Marmol, Cubs
Time for good news again. Marmol pitched the ninth inning and earned a save Friday against the Mariners, which normally wouldn't mean anything during the spring because teams don't use their relievers situationally. But the fact that Marmol -- one of three candidates to close -- entered the game in a save situation sounds like more than mere coincidence. Maybe the Cubs wanted a look at how he'd handle that situation mentally. I already figured Marmol had the edge in this three-way battle -- he dominated as a setup man last year -- and this demonstration only gives me more reason to believe. Target him if you hope to nab the Cubs closer.
OF Chase Headley, Padres
The Padres converted Headley from third base this spring, hoping he'd compete for the job in left field. So far, he's done more than compete. With a .462 batting average and .846 slugging percentage through his first 13 at-bats, I feel like he's put himself right at the top of the list. He has great plate discipline, having posted a .437 on-base percentage at Double-A last year, and I tend to think that brand of hitter has a better chance of surviving his rookie season. Of course, I always liked Headley's competition, Scott Hairston, and thought he never got the at-bats he deserved. Then again, with center fielder Jim Edmonds and right fielder Brian Giles already dealing with injuries, both Headley and Hairston might work their way into the outfield. Think of Headley as a nice NL-only sleeper, especially since he probably still qualifies at third base in your league.
3B Andy LaRoche, Dodgers
OK, I'm kind of cheating with this one, wanting to talk more about his injury than his stats. LaRoche tore a ligament in his thumb Friday and won't play again until May, making a washed up Nomar Garciaparra the starter by default. It's a real shame, too, because LaRoche had gotten off to a great start, hitting .350 with a .959 OPS through 20 at-bats. With all the hype going to rookies Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce this spring, I thought LaRoche had an opportunity to make a bigger impact than either. He still might -- it's not like this injury will cost him his whole season -- but if it motivates the Dodgers to acquire Brandon Inge or Joe Crede, forget it. And yes, I know LaRoche looked terrible in his 93 at-bats last season, but you can't take those too seriously. Rookies are supposed to struggle. The ones who don't are the freaks.
That's all for now.
Posted on: March 8, 2008 4:19 am
Edited on: May 8, 2008 8:02 pm
Category: MLB
Tags: Fantasy Baseball, spring stats
Posted on: March 5, 2008 4:15 am
Edited on: May 8, 2008 7:59 pm
Tiers
Well, I finally caved.
After the bombardment of e-mails from people asking me for my tiers, I decided to post them for all to see on my blog. It was no small endeavor.
In case you don't know what I mean by "tiers," I'll direct you to two of my columns: Draft Day Dos and Don'ts, Part I and Draft Day Dos and Don'ts, Part IV. In fact, you should just go read the whole Draft Day Dos and Don'ts series. I won't get paid more money if you do, but I'll feel awfully good inside.
Now, I want to clear up a few issues on these tiers before I go right into them. Obviously, I created them from my own personal rankings, not the CBSSports.com defaults. I encourage you to create your own tiers based on your own rankings, but if you want a guide, you now have mine.
I tried to make my rankings as generic as possible, meaning they don't appeal to any particular scoring system. I would obviously fine-tune them based on the scoring system, and certain players would make dramatic leaps higher or lower. With these tiers, I also intended to appeal to the majority, meaning those who play in 10-to-12-team mixed leagues. If you play in a deeper league, you obviously need to go deeper with your tiers.
The last tier at each position doesn't necessarily include all guys who I consider more or less equal to each other. Theoretically, the draft should end somewhere in the middle of that final tier, and I wanted to tack onto it a few guys who I make a point to keep an eye on, no matter the league format.
I included DH-only players at first base because tiers only make sense at positions you need. Obviously, you don't need a DH because you can play any position at DH. Still, those DH-only players have value, so I wanted to include them in the tiers in a way that would gauge their value appropriately to everyone else. Grouping them with the first basemen seemed the most logical choice. Based on the depth at the position, your DH most often ends up a first baseman if not a DH-only player.
And on a final note, as you can see from the time of post, I put together these tiers awfully early in the morning, after a long night of writing updates. I quite conceivably could have omitted somebody. Then again, I quite conceivably could have omitted him on purpose. If you see a glaring omission, let me know. I'll either add the missing player or explain to you why I didn't include him in the first place.
Now, my fellow tough guys, let's tier it up.
Catcher
The Elite
Victor Martinez, Russell Martin
The Next-Best Things (I have yet to draft from this particular tier at this particular position.)
Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada
The Fallback Options
Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Geovany Soto, J.R. Towles, Chris Snyder, Ramon Hernandez, Bengie Molina, Jason Varitek, Dioner Navarro, Ronny Paulino, Carlos Ruiz, Gregg Zaun, John Buck, Kurt Suzuki
First base
The Elite
Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz
The Near-Elite
Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Travis Hafner, Justin Morneau
The Next-Best Things
Carlos Pena, Gary Sheffield, Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Jim Thome, James Loney, Todd Helton, Nick Swisher, Paul Konerko
The Fallback Options
Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Guillen, Ryan Garko, Alex Gordon, Nick Johnson, Conor Jackson, Frank Thomas, Casey Kotchman, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, Daric Barton, Adam A. LaRoche
Second base
The Elite
Chase Utley
The Near-Elite
Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton, Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano
The Fallback Options
Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson
Adequate Middle Infielders
Placido Polanco, Jeff Kent, Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Howie Kendrick, Orlando Hudson, Ty Wigginton, Mark Ellis, Kazuo Matsui, Yunel Escobar
Third base
The Elite
Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera
The Next-Best Things
Ryan J. Braun, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins
The Fallback Options (I have yet to draft from this particular tier at this particular position.)
Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre
Late-Round Sleepers
Alex Gordon, Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Hank Blalock, Josh Fields, Mark Reynolds, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion
Shortstop
The Elite
Hanley Ramirez, Jose B. Reyes, Jimmy Rollins
The Next-Best Things (I have only once drafted from this particular tier at this particular position, and I immediately regretted it.)
Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Guillen
The Fallback Options
Khalil Greene, J.J. Hardy, Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria, Michael Young, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, Julio Lugo
Outfield
The Elite
Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero
The Near-Elite
Magglio Ordonez, Lance Berkman, Carlos N. Lee, Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki
The Next-Best Things
Alex Rios, Manny Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Bobby Abreu, Corey C. Hart, Adam Dunn, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Hideki Matsui
The Fallback Options
Brad Hawpe, Hunter Pence, Chris B. Young, Eric Byrnes, Jason Bay, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Delmon Young, Juan Pierre, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino, Jermaine Dye, Jeff Francoeur, Ken Griffey, Raul Ibanez
The Overrated and Late-Round Sleepers
Kosuke Fukudome, Andruw Jones, Jack Cust, Rick Ankiel, Josh Fields, Melky Cabrera, J.D. Drew, Johnny Damon, Josh Willingham, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Corey Patterson, Michael Bourn, Willy Taveras, Michael Cuddyer, Jose Guillen, Garret Anderson, Lastings Milledge, Nate McLouth, Milton Bradley, Luke Scott, Carlos Quentin, Rocco Baldelli, Carlos Gomez, Mike Cameron, Moises Alou, Ryan Church, Austin Kearns, Jason Kubel
Starting pitcher
The Elite
Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard, Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander
The Near-Elite
Aaron Harang, John Lackey, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz
The Next-Best Things
Daisuke Matsuzaka, James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Brett Myers, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Ben Sheets, Chris R. Young, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Zambrano, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano
The Fallback Options
John Maine, Chad Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Dustin McGowan, Brad Penny, Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Bonderman, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Snell, Oliver Perez, Jeff Francis
The Overrated and Late-Round Sleepers
Phil Hughes, Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Clay Buchholz, Dontrelle Willis, Randy Johnson, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Micah Owings, Ian Kennedy, Hiroki Kuroda, Tom Gorzelanny, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mark Buehrle, Barry Zito, Andy Pettitte, Kelvim Escobar, Jason Schmidt
After the bombardment of e-mails from people asking me for my tiers, I decided to post them for all to see on my blog. It was no small endeavor.
In case you don't know what I mean by "tiers," I'll direct you to two of my columns: Draft Day Dos and Don'ts, Part I and Draft Day Dos and Don'ts, Part IV. In fact, you should just go read the whole Draft Day Dos and Don'ts series. I won't get paid more money if you do, but I'll feel awfully good inside.
Now, I want to clear up a few issues on these tiers before I go right into them. Obviously, I created them from my own personal rankings, not the CBSSports.com defaults. I encourage you to create your own tiers based on your own rankings, but if you want a guide, you now have mine.
I tried to make my rankings as generic as possible, meaning they don't appeal to any particular scoring system. I would obviously fine-tune them based on the scoring system, and certain players would make dramatic leaps higher or lower. With these tiers, I also intended to appeal to the majority, meaning those who play in 10-to-12-team mixed leagues. If you play in a deeper league, you obviously need to go deeper with your tiers.
The last tier at each position doesn't necessarily include all guys who I consider more or less equal to each other. Theoretically, the draft should end somewhere in the middle of that final tier, and I wanted to tack onto it a few guys who I make a point to keep an eye on, no matter the league format.
I included DH-only players at first base because tiers only make sense at positions you need. Obviously, you don't need a DH because you can play any position at DH. Still, those DH-only players have value, so I wanted to include them in the tiers in a way that would gauge their value appropriately to everyone else. Grouping them with the first basemen seemed the most logical choice. Based on the depth at the position, your DH most often ends up a first baseman if not a DH-only player.
And on a final note, as you can see from the time of post, I put together these tiers awfully early in the morning, after a long night of writing updates. I quite conceivably could have omitted somebody. Then again, I quite conceivably could have omitted him on purpose. If you see a glaring omission, let me know. I'll either add the missing player or explain to you why I didn't include him in the first place.
Now, my fellow tough guys, let's tier it up.
Catcher
The Elite
Victor Martinez, Russell Martin
The Next-Best Things (I have yet to draft from this particular tier at this particular position.)
Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada
The Fallback Options
Kenji Johjima, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Geovany Soto, J.R. Towles, Chris Snyder, Ramon Hernandez, Bengie Molina, Jason Varitek, Dioner Navarro, Ronny Paulino, Carlos Ruiz, Gregg Zaun, John Buck, Kurt Suzuki
First base
The Elite
Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz
The Near-Elite
Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Lance Berkman, Travis Hafner, Justin Morneau
The Next-Best Things
Carlos Pena, Gary Sheffield, Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, Victor Martinez, Jim Thome, James Loney, Todd Helton, Nick Swisher, Paul Konerko
The Fallback Options
Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Guillen, Ryan Garko, Alex Gordon, Nick Johnson, Conor Jackson, Frank Thomas, Casey Kotchman, Carlos Delgado, Joey Votto, Daric Barton, Adam A. LaRoche
Second base
The Elite
Chase Utley
The Near-Elite
Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton, Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano
The Fallback Options
Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Kelly Johnson
Adequate Middle Infielders
Placido Polanco, Jeff Kent, Dustin Pedroia, Aaron Hill, Howie Kendrick, Orlando Hudson, Ty Wigginton, Mark Ellis, Kazuo Matsui, Yunel Escobar
Third base
The Elite
Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera
The Next-Best Things
Ryan J. Braun, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins
The Fallback Options (I have yet to draft from this particular tier at this particular position.)
Chone Figgins, Ryan Zimmerman, Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre
Late-Round Sleepers
Alex Gordon, Troy Glaus, Evan Longoria, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Hank Blalock, Josh Fields, Mark Reynolds, Scott Rolen, Edwin Encarnacion
Shortstop
The Elite
Hanley Ramirez, Jose B. Reyes, Jimmy Rollins
The Next-Best Things (I have only once drafted from this particular tier at this particular position, and I immediately regretted it.)
Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Guillen
The Fallback Options
Khalil Greene, J.J. Hardy, Rafael Furcal, Edgar Renteria, Michael Young, Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Jhonny Peralta, Julio Lugo
Outfield
The Elite
Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero
The Near-Elite
Magglio Ordonez, Lance Berkman, Carlos N. Lee, Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki
The Next-Best Things
Alex Rios, Manny Ramirez, Nick Markakis, Bobby Abreu, Corey C. Hart, Adam Dunn, B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Hideki Matsui
The Fallback Options
Brad Hawpe, Hunter Pence, Chris B. Young, Eric Byrnes, Jason Bay, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, Delmon Young, Juan Pierre, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino, Jermaine Dye, Jeff Francoeur, Ken Griffey, Raul Ibanez
The Overrated and Late-Round Sleepers
Kosuke Fukudome, Andruw Jones, Jack Cust, Rick Ankiel, Josh Fields, Melky Cabrera, J.D. Drew, Johnny Damon, Josh Willingham, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Corey Patterson, Michael Bourn, Willy Taveras, Michael Cuddyer, Jose Guillen, Garret Anderson, Lastings Milledge, Nate McLouth, Milton Bradley, Luke Scott, Carlos Quentin, Rocco Baldelli, Carlos Gomez, Mike Cameron, Moises Alou, Ryan Church, Austin Kearns, Jason Kubel
Starting pitcher
The Elite
Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Erik Bedard, Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander
The Near-Elite
Aaron Harang, John Lackey, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, John Smoltz
The Next-Best Things
Daisuke Matsuzaka, James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Felix Hernandez, Brett Myers, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Ben Sheets, Chris R. Young, Fausto Carmona, Carlos Zambrano, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Francisco Liriano
The Fallback Options
John Maine, Chad Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Dustin McGowan, Brad Penny, Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Bonderman, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Snell, Oliver Perez, Jeff Francis
The Overrated and Late-Round Sleepers
Phil Hughes, Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Clay Buchholz, Dontrelle Willis, Randy Johnson, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Micah Owings, Ian Kennedy, Hiroki Kuroda, Tom Gorzelanny, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mark Buehrle, Barry Zito, Andy Pettitte, Kelvim Escobar, Jason Schmidt












