Scott White

When I need a blog entry fast, where do I turn?

The Observations!!!!!!!

(late Sunday night edition)

The pregame Gil Meche coin flip must have landed on brilliant Sunday, as the Royals right-hander threw seven shutout innings against the Indians -- the same team that roughed him up for eight runs two starts ago. I still say he made too much progress last year to fade into Fantasy obscurity, but if you try to play matchups with him right now, you have a stronger stomach than I do.

So Darrell Rasner has a decent start against the Mariners and everybody rushes to claim him off the waiver wire. OK, fine. He might win a handful of games with Phil Hughes injured and Ian Kennedy excommunicated, but don't mistake him for having the upside to leap to the front of your Fantasy staff. At best, he's the Yankee equivalent to Tim Wakefield.

Melky Cabrera homered again, bringing his season total to six, and while I expect him to slow that pace some, I think the power is legit. Emack and I had a brief discussion about Cabrera's upside a week or two before the season began. He called him overrated, saying he'll top out as a Jay Payton-type player, but I respectfully disagreed. I love his plate discipline and think his power has plenty of room to improve at the age of 23. If you take the average of Hideki Matsui's and Bobby Abreu's career stats, I think you'll get a good idea of what the future holds for Cabrera.

Ha-ha, Jose A. Contreras beat Roy Halladay at his own game, going the distance for a loss Sunday at the Blue Jays. Halladay could last only 7 1/3 innings and, if I may say so, looked rather ... oh wait, he got the win.

Raise your hand if you had Scott Downs for three saves in early May. Right now, he's making his Fantasy owners in AL-only Rotisserie leagues very, very happy, but he'll lose his appeal once B.J. Ryan starts working on back-to-back days.

Mike Jacobs went 3-for-4 one day after hitting a home run, and his hurt finger doesn't seem to affect him at the plate. He'll likely play with pain the rest of the season, so let's hope the trend continues. I could see him hitting 30 homers, but not .280.

Andrew Miller limited his walks and his hits, allowing six baserunners in six innings against the Padres. I need to see more before adding him in any leagues, but he took a step in the right direction Sunday.

Bronson Arroyo ... oy. That's at least seven earned runs in two of his last three starts. He had a great second-half turnaround after a rough first half last year, but at this rate, you have to wonder if he'll even get a chance to duplicate that feat. (For the record, he probably will.)

Chipper Jones, please stay healthy.

In my time following the Braves, I've noticed Kelly Johnson, like a lot of hitters with a high number of walks and high number of strikeouts, tends to have pronounced hot and cold streaks. With five doubles in his last two games, I sense a hot streak approaching. Get him active if you have him on your bench.

I've long criticized Jon Lester, but his five hits and one earned run over his last 14 innings have caught my attention. Those seven walks over that same stretch still bother me, but he looks like a must-add in mixed leagues right now.

I keep waiting for Tim Redding to collapse. I keep getting older.

If you haven't noticed, Rich Aurilia is getting hot, hitting three home runs in his last seven games and going 3-for-3 Sunday. I don't want to overhype him by any means, but Fantasy owners in NL-only leagues need to remember he hit 23 homers the year before last. Granted, he played in a much better hitter's park back then, but still. Don't judge him strictly on his five home runs last year.

Jayson Werth didn't start for the second straight game. *Sigh.*

I don't like four runs in 6 1/3 innings for Ben Sheets any more than you do, but at least he didn't walk a batter. I'm ready to put his triceps injury behind me and call him a Fantasy ace again. Who's with me?

Berkman went 4-for-5 with a yet another home run -- his 10th. Bank on 40 bombs from him this year.

Sure, Aaron Cook looks good now with that sparkling 5-1 record and nifty 2.40 ERA, but you're fooling yourself if you think he'll finish with more than 100 strikeouts or an ERA below 4.00. Seventh-year, 29-year-old starting pitchers don't generally reinvent themselves, and I haven't heard anything about Cook to suggest he has.

Cust, Jack. See Johnson, Kelly.

I think his ERA will rise to about 3.50 before the end of the season, but Greg Smith, the prize of the Dan Haren deal, looks like the real deal. With his 10-strikeout performance against the Rangers, he has allowed three runs or less in all six of his starts and clearly deserves a roster spot in all Fantasy leagues.

That's all for now.

I turn my back for five minutes, five minutes ...

Have you ever had one of those vacations where you leave with everything in its proper order -- the operation alive and well, the machine on autopilot, the I's dotted, T's crossed and P's and Q's minded -- only to have everything go so wrong in your absence that you end up even more anxious than when you left?

Well, that didn't happen to me -- not exactly, anyway. I wouldn't call a three-day weekend a vacation, and I didn't exactly return to more work, just a state of disorientation.

But things went wrong -- plenty of things -- and most of them involved pitchers. And I thought I'd take a moment now to give my take on some of the biggest.

Yovani Gallardo -- I'm calling this news the biggest because the pitcher involved is arguably the most Fantasy-relevant and has the potential to miss the whole season. Gallardo has already begun to emerge as a Fantasy ace as a 22-year-old, but after his Fantasy owners waited most of April for him to return from a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee, he went and tore the ACL in his right. The Brewers haven't officially declared he'll need surgery, so don't rush out to cut him if you don't have to. Then again, I've never known anyone to tear his ACL and not miss the season. Looking long term, you have to worry a little about a pitcher so young losing a year of development, but you'll take a leg injury over an arm injury any day.

John Smoltz -- The 40-year-old ace's balky shoulder finally became too much to bear, landing him on the DL with inflammation of the rotator cuff. Bad news for Smoltz's Fantasy owners: In leagues where saves don't count for much, Smoltz no longer has any Fantasy appeal. Good news for Smoltz's Fantasy owners: In leagues where saves come at a premium, your team has access to a bunch more ... potentially. And I have to add the word "potentially "because we don't really know when Smoltz will return or how long he'll last when he does. I get the impression this injury might shut down a younger pitcher for the season but that Smoltz is making the most of what he has because he can pitch only so much longer. He has long contended he prefers starting to closing, and so him volunteering to move to the bullpen shows he faces a grave alternative. And if he's incapable of starting, I have to think he's barely capable of closing, which means any attempt to do so might not last long.

Max Scherzer -- This guy is awesome. His minor-league numbers are ridiculous, and Emack seems to be hyping him for all the right reasons. After he struck out seven in 4 1/3 perfect innings of relief in his major-league debut, I have a hard time believing he'll relinquish his rotation spot now that he has it. And with a rotation of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, Scherzer and, oh yeah, that Micah Owings guy who lost for the first time Friday, I have a hard time believing any team but the Diamondbacks will represent the NL in the World Series.

Rich Hill -- After showing steady improvement over the last two seasons, Hill walked four in two-thirds of an inning Friday at St. Louis, reaching his low point and causing Cubs manager Lou Piniella to reach his breaking point. "Hill can't start like that in the big leagues," Piniella said. "Every time he starts, it's an adventure. I don't know what the solution is, but I can't start him anymore." I told a friend immediately after Friday night's start to hang on to Hill, but now that the Cubs have demoted him to Triple-A, I take it back. I'm not saying Hill is finished, but if you cut him, I can't see any of your opponents putting in a claim for him outside of NL-only leagues.

Phil Hughes -- Hughes is on the DL with a rib injury until July, which means his Fantasy owners don't have to suffer through any more miserable starts, hoping for a sudden turnaround. The news also affects two other Fantasy-relevant pitchers: Ian Kennedy gets a longer leash for now, and Joba Chamberlain has another excuse to move to the rotation.

Mike Hampton -- This news is really non-news. Hampton's body is made of wafer cookies doused in milk. The possibility of him missing the season with a pectoral injury is simply par for the course and reason enough for NL-only owners not to waste a roster spot on him.

That's all for now.

When I play in a new league with people I've never played before, I usually get the same reaction:

"You really like trading, don't you?"

No, I hate it. It stresses me out.

And why shouldn't it? I put my own team on the line, potentially ruining it. I risk offending people, usually my friends. And I make 10 other people unhappy because, if all goes according to plan, I improved only my team and one other, leaving the rest behind.

But I keep swinging deals anyway because I can't stop reminding myself of one agonizing truth:

No matter how good my team is, some trade exists out there to make it better.

It's obvious, really. Unless I have the No. 1 player at every single position, my team has room for improvement.

So I trade and I trade and I trade until the league rules say I can't trade anymore. And when I trade, I do a few things to make sure I don't lose my opportunity to keep trading.

1. Don't be scared to make an offer.
Some people act insulted when you make an offer that doesn't measure up to their standards. We've all experienced it, I'm sure. And while you obviously don't want to insult people, you have to remember the context of the insult. You're playing a game, and in this particular facet of the game, each side wants to squeeze that last little bit out of the other. And besides, everybody has different impressions of players. You know how you feel about your guy, but you don't know how your opponent feels. So even if you make the most balanced offer in the history of the universe, your opponent still might take offense, saying, "How dare you give me that walking infirmary Chipper Jones" or "Carlos Quentin is a fluke, and you know it."

No matter how carefully you try to craft a deal, no matter how fair you make it, someone might see it differently. So stop worrying. Propose what you want to propose because you just never know what will result. That last-ditch offer you make with a nervous laugh as you propose it? Sometimes, it goes through. And even if you don't think your opponent will accept your exact offer, you might at least give him a starting point to work from. When debating whether to make an offer, the only thing that should dissuade you from doing so is the possibility of wasting your own time.

2. Keep knocking on doors until one opens.
You hear people say this when you're looking for a job, but it also applies to making a trade in Fantasy. When you decide you want to deal, don't just propose your dream offer and hope for the best. Flood the market. If you find some player you want on one team, another team probably has a comparable player. And a third and a fourth. The more conversations you open, the better chance you have of swinging a deal. You don't want to twiddle your thumbs while a guy sits on your offer for two weeks only to watch him quietly reject it as soon you leave him a prodding voice mail.

3. Don't become Joe Salesman.
Nobody likes salesmen. They're annoying, and you can't help but wonder if everything coming out of their mouths is hooey. So why become one?

You can pitch a guy as the next Babe Ruth, the best thing since the four-door car or a one-man wrecking crew who will single-handedly put your opponent's team over the top, and it'll sound humorously transparent. If a player really is all of those things, why not keep him yourself?

And if you sound humorously transparent, you've blown your chance of earning someone's trust. Even if you do give a realistic assessment later, he won't believe you. He'll see it as another pitch. In fact, at that point, you might as well not say anything in the trading process because anything you say will only risk irritating him.

Leave the sales pitch for a salesman. Unless you're one of those bullies who plays against novices just to experience the rush of winning, your leaguemates probably know their stuff just as well as you do. Which leads right into my next point ...

4. Be honest.
Some prominent Fantasy players have the general misconception that successful trading is all about tricking someone, but I disagree for two primary reasons:

1. I don't think it works when you play against equal competition. 2. In the rare case it does work, your opponent will undoubtedly feel tricked and probably refrain from making a trade with you in the future.

Again, when you trick someone, you lose their trust, and lost trust is hard to earn back -- even in the context of a game. So instead of trying to trick him -- and usually failing -- just be forthright with him. If you feel your team sucks, let him know. If you feel you can kiss your playoff berth goodbye if you don't get a better second baseman than Jeff Kent, let him know. If you feel he might struggle for saves with Todd Jones as his second closer, let him know. And don't get defensive over any observations he makes about your team. If you get yourself in a casual conversation about each other's teams, pretty soon you'll find yourselves pitching trade ideas back and forth.

And then, you're almost sure to walk away with something.

5. Don't pick a fight when someone rejects your trade.
Remember that trading is all about coming to a mutual agreement. If you throw a fit when someone rejects your trade, you're essentially trying to bully him into accepting it. That's not cool, and even if it works, you'll probably have forfeited any chance of dealing with him again.

I don't care if he makes some snide remark as he rejects your offer, calling it laughable or a waste of time. Take the high road. Don't fight back. It makes sense not only from a social standpoint, but from a strategic standpoint as well. If you fire back, you only run the risk of escalating the disagreement into an all-out argument, and nobody wants to deal (double meaning, there) with a perpetual headache.

6. Don't draw attention to your trade on the league message board.
I used to do this all the time. I'd comment on a trade I just made, some third party would respond with some nit-picky complaint, a second or third would join in the complaining, and before you knew it, the league had overturned my trade. It happened time and time and time again. They'd yell at me; I'd yell back. They'd feel manipulated; I'd feel sabotaged. And what ultimately resulted was mass controversy and zero fun.

I didn't mean any harm. I just wanted to chitchat. Fantasy Baseball is a social game, and I wanted to, you know, socialize.

But I didn't understand the consequences of my seemingly innocent action. By asking people to comment on my trade, I was drawing extraneous attention to it. I was asking them to put it under a microscope, examine it piece by piece, and remark on their findings. And you know what? When people see one team improving and theirs lagging behind, they'll usually find something wrong with the deal.

So save the talk. I know making a trade is exciting, but celebrate privately.

That's all for now.

And since I have the next three days off, that's all until Saturday.