Scott White

I thought I'd dedicate another entry to a quick-paced list of observations from the previous night's box scores. In fact, I think I'll make this analysis a regular feature in my blog and call it "The Observations."

Nate McLouth homered again to increase his season-opening hit streak to 16 games -- and he actually has a hit already Saturday, so make that 17. He looks more legit with each passing day. Honestly, how did the Pirates not find a spot for this guy sooner? And how did Nyjer Morgan even stand a chance this spring?

I want to make this as clear as possible: Tim Redding's 10 strikeouts at the Marlins was a F-L-U-K-E. He set a career high and more than tripled his season high with the mark. He might have some value in NL-only leagues when going well, but he doesn't have the kind of ceiling to justify using him in mixed leagues.

Bill Hall just keeps hitting home runs, connecting for No. 6 Friday at Cincinnati. Of course, he can't do anything else. He's hitting .210 with 20 strikeouts. Still, he's making it awfully hard for me to stand behind my prediction of 15-20 home runs.

David Purcey might have the cutest name in baseball, and considering he walked seven in his major-league debut against the Tigers, he did a pretty good job of damage control by allowing only one run in 4 1/3 innings. He blamed the wildness on nerves, which is understandable, I think. The Blue Jays only needed him for a spot start, so they sent him right back to Triple-A after the game, but they could always call on him again. Don't take him completely off your radar in AL-only leagues.

Pick up Cliff Lee if you haven't already. That is all.

I don't want to believe in Todd Wellemeyer, because his success just doesn't make any sense, but when a pitcher continues to strike out a batter per inning through four starts, at some point I have to come to accept he might really be a strikeout pitcher. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has orchestrated a few miraculous career turnarounds in the past, so why couldn't he do the same for a journeyman like Wellemeyer? I'm giving the 29-year-old right-hander one last start to come back down to earth, but if he dominates again, I have to pick him up wherever I can.

I think we can finally, finally say Conor Jackson has arrived as a power hitter. I know he's teased us in the past, but he did so by showing off his power stroke in the second half, not in April. After hitting a home run and two triples Friday, he's now slugging .750. He obviously won't maintain that percentage all season, but 25 home runs with a batting average around .320 or so looks like a distinct possibility.

I'm not willing to say this means anything for Fantasy purposes, but I can't help but see the humor in Daniel Cabrera's steadily decreasing walk totals. He started the season by issuing five free passes to the Rays on April 2 and has since issued exactly one fewer in each of his three successive starts, finishing with two Friday against the Yankees. If the pattern holds, he'll walk zero two starts from now, and after that, I guess he'll have to go negative. (Does that mean more strikeouts?) Of course, knowing Cabrera, he'll probably just bounce the other way after hitting zero, increasing his walk total by one each time out, which by my estimation, puts him at 26 in his final start of the season. Make note.

I know I have that Braves tomahawk in the upper-right-hand corner of this blog page, but maybe the rest of the country is starting to get a reminder of just how good Chipper Jones is. His injury problems the last few years have kind of taken him out of the spotlight, but hitting two home runs on back-to-back days has no doubt put himself back in it. We're nearing the end of April, and he's hitting .455 with six home runs -- numbers that dwarf those of the other hot starters, like Derrek Lee, Pat Burrell and McLouth. Since the beginning of July 2006, Chipper, in 740 at-bats -- about a full season for Jimmy Rollins, mind you -- is hitting .355 with 53 home runs.

And I bet you didn't want to draft him, right?

That's all for now.

I don't have anything against prospects or the men who appraise them. In fact, I consider the assessment of prospects, the singling out players who might give your team that instant jolt off the waiver wire, a vitally important part of Fantasy.

But somebody needs to say something to calm down this Evan Longoria hype, and I'm taking it upon myself to do so.

I was going through the Fantasy Baseball mailbag Friday, like I do every day, when a couple of questions caught my attention, inspiring this entry. They so casually assumed success for Longoria -- like it was a given, like they weren't even making an assumption -- suggesting to me that this 22-year-old third baseman has firmly entrenched himself in the realm of irrational thought.

Let's get real, people.

"In my league, one of the owners has soured on Justin Verlander and offered him to me for Tim Lincecum. However, he asked that I include either Nick Markakis or Evan Longoria to complete the deal. What is Verlander worth?"
--Traci Hart

This e-mail looks casual. It looks harmless. It looks like it's in no way making a statement of any kind about Longoria. But look again. Traci's trading partner has offered him the choice of parting with either Markakis or Longoria, like they're equals, like they have the same potential to help his Fantasy team.

Uh, excuse me? At what point during Longoria's first 20 major-league at-bats did he do something to place himself on equal footing with Markakis -- a guy who was going as early as the fourth round in Fantasy drafts, who hit .300 with 23 home runs and 18 stolen bases as a 23-year-old last year and is on place for a .308-32-43 line early this year?

Don't get me wrong: Longoria hasn't done anything to disappoint yet, having hit .300 with a home run and a nice 4-to-5 walk-to-strikeout ratio. But 20 at-bats? I mean, he didn't hit 10 homers or go 20-for-20, which is about what it'd take for me to compare any rookie after 20 at-bats to a third-year player widely considered on the threshold of becoming a Fantasy stud.

So yeah, Traci. Make that deal. And don't hesitate to throw in Longoria, a likely free-agent pickup in mixed leagues a week ago, if your trading partner holds him in the same esteem as Markakis.

"I've been presented a unique opportunity to upgrade my pitching. I've been offered Brandon Webb and Troy Tulowitzki for Evan Longoria and Chien-Ming Wang. I think this trade looks good, seeing that Longoria just sits on my bench. What do you think?"
--Kevin Ferrell

Kevin here has the right idea, but the fact he needs to ask me suggests something is amiss in his assessment of Longoria.

Because we know the potential hangup isn't the Webb-for-Wang portion of the deal. Wang is a consistent winner for the Yankees and a worthwhile pitcher for Fantasy purposes, but he's not a perennial Cy Young candidate like Webb, who allows fewer hits and records far more strikeouts. Easy call there.

So then Kevin must wonder if Longoria is equal to Tulowitzki -- or, more accurately, if Longoria is so far ahead of Tulowitzki that the impact of trading Longoria for Tulowitzki is enough to negate the impact of acquiring Webb for Wang.

Which is crazy, obviously. Longoria, in terms of Fantasy appeal, still lags leaps and bounds behind Tulowitzki -- again, a fourth-round draft pick entering the season -- after only 20 at-bats. And I say that as a staunch non-believer in Tulowitzki, wary of his high strikeout rate and lack of a track record. Make that deal, Kevin, and don't think twice.

Look, I know Longoria is a terrific prospect with mountains of ability. Scouts and statisticians alike love him, and their praise has trickled down to Fantasy owners, who want to snag the next Albert Pujols or Ryan J. Braun. But assuming Longoria will have the first-year success of either of those guys is just a bad way to conduct your Fantasy team.

Remember when Chipper Jones began his career back in 1995? He had all the hype and praise, and he deserved it just like Longoria. He also had, by everyone's account, a fantastic rookie season, finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting to Hideo Nomo.

So what were his numbers? A .265 batting average with 23 home runs, which, if you think about it, is a lot like Adrian Beltre in terms of Fantasy usefulness.

I don't have anything against Longoria. I'm not calling him a chump, a tease, a bust or anything else remotely bad. I'm not saying you shouldn't own him in Fantasy or that he won't make a positive contribution to your team this year. But when considering the realm of possibilities for a superstar rookie -- from the bad (Alex Gordon) to the good (Jones) to the unreal (Braun) -- how likely, honestly, is Longoria to rate alongside Markakis and Tulowitzki by the end of this year?

That's all for now.

Get your bids ready.

It happened when we least expected it. One day, Joe Borowski is tumultuously closing games for the foreseeable future, and the next? Decreased velocity, mysterious injury, 15-day DL, done.

OK, I fabricated that last part, but I think it's the ultimate destination on that wondrous journey of his. Borowski has a one-way ticket to done town.

Because his replacement is obvious -- so obvious you might not even have a chance to grab him in your league if one of your opponents preemptively scouted him, drafted him and stashed him in the off chance of this scenario playing out.

Rafael Betancourt -- his awaited rise to Fantasy prominence has long captivated legions of wide-eyed enthusiasts, rivaling the latest shuttle launch, Earth Day and the return of the McRib sandwich.

And now it's here -- the day we can witness firsthand just how many saves a 1.48 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP will translate into.

Which is kind of a silly way to put it, I'll admit, considering saves have a limited capacity dependent on a million outside factors beyond Betancourt's control. But still, with his stuff in that role for one of the league's perennial contenders, he could emerge as one of the top closers in the game, provided his head proves up to the task (he has converted only 12 of 29 saves in his career). Pick him up in all leagues.

...

And the Indians aren't the only participant of the 1995 World Series to undergo a ninth-inning makeover. For the second time in less than a week, the Braves have to anoint a new closer, with Peter Moylan (right elbow soreness) joining Rafael Soriano on the 15-day DL. The replacement here isn't quite as obvious as in Cleveland, but Manny Acosta is the leading candidate, especially since the Braves considered turning to him when Soriano went down. I won't write a lengthy ode declaring him the second coming of Jonathan Papelbon, but he has good stuff and could emerge as a decent stopgap.

...

Finally, I want to take a moment to read and respond to an e-mail from one of the readers of my Sliders column, which made its second showing Tuesday.

Hi Scott, I have an extremely crowded utility area, and I'm hoping you can help. It's a Head-to-Head league that uses standard batting categories, plus OPS (i.e., not a points league). We have two utility spots. I have to choose between Jim Thome, Lastings Milledge, Jeremy Hermida and Mark Reynolds. We don't have a corner infield position for Reynolds, and my third baseman is Miguel Cabrera (who has to snap out of it sometime). My three outfield spots are occupied by Nate McLouth, Hunter Pence and Alex Rios, so there's no way to get all of these guys in on the fun. Of the four players left for my utility spots, which ones have the most upside going forward? Luckily, I don't have to drop any of them at this point. Thanks. --Ed, Portland, Ore.

Thanks for the e-mail, Ed.

Knowing that you still have to account for stolen bases -- which is unfortunate, but important to know -- I think the final choice for your starting lineup comes down to Jim Thome, Lastings Milledge and Hunter Pence, believe it or not -- and I'd actually consider Thome the no-brainer if not for your need for speed.

For now, I like Thome's OPS too much to bench him, especially with Milledge not stealing many bases, which I guess means I have Pence going to the bench. I know benching Pence sounds like a bonehead move because he came on so strong last year, but keep in mind it was just one year. He hit only .283 in his final full season in the minors, so it's not like he's a born contender for the batting title. If he starts to heat up, you can always put him back in the lineup.

I guess I'll answer your question two ways, and you can choose the one that bet fits your style. If you hope to set your lineup once and leave it all year, reserve McLouth and Milledge. They're the more "risky" options, given their lack of track records. But if you want to go with your best bets now and reassess throughout the season (which I highly recommend, by the way), reserve Pence and Milledge.

That's all for now.