Scott White

I got some interesting feedback from my post Saturday -- early Sunday morning, technically -- on Ben Sheets' new arm slot, and I wanted to share one piece of insight in particular. This analysis comes to us from dangerranger in Athens, Ga.:

"I hadn't heard this either and thought it was interesting, so I checked out his pitch f/x data, and I found that Sheets' release point last year was inconsistent. His curveball was usually released at a higher point than his fastball, so I think there's a chance his pitching coach might have thought it led to his sharp decline in missed bats. Some numbers which support this:

• Only 13% of strikes registered by Sheets (counting balls put into play) were missed swings. This was his lowest total since 2003.
  
• Batters swung at 49% of his pitches, which is pretty consistent with what he'd been doing his entire career.
  
• Contact rate was 82%, the highest since 2003.
  

Considering that hitters made better contact against Sheets with no real change in swing frequency, and considering that Sheets might have tipped his pitches last year with an inconsistent release point, possibly the new pitch angle is for the better. I suppose we'll see."

I don't know if this information is accurate, and I'm not too proud to admit I wouldn't know how to verify it, but it certainly puts a new spin on the Fantasy prospects for Sheets this upcoming season. I can tell dangerranger, however, that Sheets didn't come across the new slot off the suggestion of any pitching coach. He said he discovered it himself while throwing the ball against a wall one day. His exact quote:

"There is no reason I found it or how I found it, other than I just stumbled on it and I felt like it was a good slot," Sheets said. "It ended up being just what I was looking for."

But whether I think this new arm slot will help Sheets pile up more strikeouts or set him back even further doesn't change how I'll approach him on Draft Day. He still has a certain measure of uncertainty that forces me to drop him in my rankings to the bottom of my third tier -- right around Daisuke Matsuzaka, A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez. So I can guess wrong and it not even matter because someone else making a guess will put too much trust in his guess and take Sheets in the top or middle of that third tier, banking on a rebound. I get the leftovers without the risk of guessing wrong.

That's the great thing about Fantasy that makes it far less about luck than some people want to acknowledge: Interpreting value takes priority over guesswork.

That's all for now.

Just wanted to touch on a few of Saturday's developments before I check out for night ...

Carlos Delgado has an impingement in his hip and will sit out for a few spring games. I'm telling you: nothing says "old man" faster than a hip injury. I don't mean to overreact to anything that, on its surface, appears minor, but we have more warning signs of Delgado's decline than his sudden need for a walker. His slugging percentage has declined sharply over the last three seasons -- including by 100 points last season to give him his lowest mark since 1995 -- and his batting average and on-base percentage have declined along with it. His strikeouts have increased. His walks have decreased. He looks about ready to fall off the map. People who expect a rebound from him this year either don't see the warning signs or don't care. I don't count myself among them.

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So ... apparently Ben Sheets is throwing out of a new arm slot.

What the?

Doesn't that sound like a big enough pitching adjustment that we should have heard about it a little sooner? I mean, I'm no pitching guru, but in order to get to the major leagues, don't you first pick an arm slot and then spend years perfecting your craft from that particular arm slot? Wouldn't just up and changing it one year set you back -- I don't know -- a few hundred innings? And I know some pitchers have a variety of arm slots they use within a game, but to switch from using only one arm slot to using only one different arm slot ... that seems a little weird to me.

But I could be wrong, and if I am, people will assuredly make fun of me for it.

Anyway, whether or not I overestimate the impact of this particular variable, the fact remains that Sheets now enters 2008 with an unknown variable. The new arm slot worked well for him in his first start this spring -- he tossed two perfect innings -- but until I see more from him, I don't entirely trust him. I'll probably drop him some in my rankings for now -- not totally off the map, but just enough to ensure someone other than me ends up with him. Hey, his injury concerns and decreasing strikeouts didn't make me feel all that comfortable anyway.

That's all for now.

I love Jack Cust. In fact, you could say I have a man crush on Jack Cust, if you believe in such things.

Can you say "Dear Diary?"

You know that player outlook on his Fantasy page? I wrote it. If you haven't seen it, go look at it now. I compared him to Adam Dunn. Emack and Gonos must have thought I was nuts.

So you can understand how his two-homer spring opener Friday at the Brewers would have special meaning to me. Yes, he hit two home runs -- one of them a grand slam -- and in two official at-bats, I might add. And oh, by the way, he missed the previous game with the flu. Said he still felt a little sick from it, in fact.

Can you say hoss?

Or at least horse? Seriously, strap a plow to this guy, and see how many trees he can drag with him. I'm guessing eight. He's what we in Georgia call "country strong."

(Post-production note: I have never before used the term "country strong" and have only once heard its use.)

But Cust doesn't just have raw power, no. He has a discerning batting eye too. That one unofficial plate appearance he had? You guessed it: walk. For that reason, A's GM Billy Beane has a man crush on him too. As often as he walks, Cust is a .900 OPS waiting to happen.

Look, I know he won't hit higher than .250, and I know he'll strike out 200 times, but Dunn hits only .260, and in most Fantasy leagues, strikeouts don't count. If Cust gets a full season of at-bats, he can hit 35 home runs. And with the A's already batting him cleanup and Beane in love with is skill set, what makes you think he won't get those at-bats?

And since no one else thinks it, even better. Let him drop and drop and drop before you eventually snag him late. Just don't wait too late, like I did in a couple drafts. You know what happened then?

Scott Cust.

As you've probably read by now in Gonos' and Emack's blogs, the three of us checked out the Orioles' intrasquad game today. It didn't set a new standard for competitive baseball, but it was baseball nonetheless, and it felt good. We all got our fill, and the two of them have already filled you in on most of it. I notice Gonos even submitted an ode to my youthful good looks, which he considers more befitting a member of the Mickey Mouse Club.

Clearly, I have to fight an uphill battle to credibility.

Anyway, you've probably heard enough by now of Adam Jones' misplayed ball in center, and I don't want it to grow into the biggest fielding folly since Bill Buckner by bringing it up again. It was an intrasquad game, after all. Really, I don't even like Jones from a Fantasy standpoint this season. I foresee many, many strikeouts and a somewhat low batting average. If you need some steals, I guess he works.

Instead, I'll talk about another Scott in Florida, more specifically Mr. Kazmir in Tampa. The kid (look, he's only a couple months older than me) felt a twinge in his elbow while warming up for the Rays' intrasquad game and ended up needing an MRI. He thinks he just hyperextended the elbow, and considering the Rays have always handled him with kid gloves, I don't suspect the MRI will reveal a serious injury. But this incident shows you exactly why most Fantasy experts suggest you stockpile hitters before pitchers. Pitchers' arms can go at any time, and in this day and age, they often do. And as healthy and fit as an up-and-coming strikeout hurler like Kazmir can look one day, he can end up paying a visit to Dr. James Andrews the next. You need to invest your early-round picks in something reliable, and hitters come with a lot more reliability than pitchers.

That's all for now