You can almost taste it now, can't you?
Teams have more or less finalized their rosters and made their cuts, discarding journeyman veterans and demoting top prospects who they decided need just a little more work.
Yes, that includes sending some of our most beloved young sluggers down to the minors. I know it hurts.
So we've shed our tears. We've torn our robes. We've lost our security deposits throwing our tantrums. What now?
Those of you who read my work consistently might have come to realize by now that I tend to approach rookies with a certain amount of skepticism. It's not that I don't think they can perform well or make a contribution in Fantasy. I just think, because of the hype generated by their arrival, you have to take more of a risk than necessary to acquire them. For the pick you'd have to use in drafts or the dollar amount you'd have to invest in auctions, you could easily land a comparable sleeper without as much uncertainty.
Sure, you might miss out on the next Ryan J. Braun, but you'll also avoid the next Alex Gordon. And the latter seems far more common than the former. Coming up from the minors, most of these young guys need at least some time to adapt.
And I don't mean to say I would never take a rookie if I could get him at fair value and he filled the right need, but if you draft a rookie and trust him to start for you (in a mixed league, anyway), you'll likely get burned.
Which brings me back to my original point. The Fantasy owners out there who drafted Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin and Chase Headley probably feel a little bit burned right now. The mailbag sure seems to indicate so. Should they pull the plug? Should they hope for the best? Should they crawl into a hole somewhere and wait for 2010?
I'll examine the four on a case-by-case basis, ranking them in the order I'd prefer to have them at this point in the season.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays -- He's coming back, and he's coming back soon. The Rays sent him down saying they wanted to give him a little more time to work on his game, but they're not fooling anyone. By delaying his rookie season a few weeks, they'll delay his free agency a year. Why not trade a few weeks for a year? Of course, Longoria could always struggle as a rookie like Alex Gordon did, but he also has more minor-league experience than Gordon did. I think Longoria is the rookie hitter with the best chance of making an immediate Fantasy impact this season, but in a league as shallow as a 10-team mixed, I could probably find someone I like better on waivers.
Chase Headley, OF Padres -- He certainly made an impression this spring, hitting .349 with four home runs and a .744 slugging percentage, and the Padres all but came out and said they expect to bring him back soon. They just want the converted third baseman to work on his outfield defense. Because he doesn't get nearly the hype of some of these other rookies, I still like him as a sleeper in NL-only leagues, but again, mixed-league owners can probably find better on waivers.
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds -- This one bothers me the most. Bruce has enormous upside, no doubt -- it's absolutely through the roof. But because the Reds don't seem to approach his promotion with the least bit of urgency, I don't think it's simply a matter of him proving himself worthy. I think he would both have to prove himself worthy and have the guy in front of him, Corey Patteron, falter. And as little as a like Patterson, I think he does enough to keep his job. Bruce's upside makes him worth hanging on to in NL-only leagues, but I'm not saving a mixed-league spot for him at this point.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins -- I think Maybin has a better chance than Bruce of hooking up with the big club early this season, but I'm not sure he offers enough immediate potential for you to save a roster spot for him. He's young. He's raw. He strikes out too much and doesn't yet hit for enough power. If the Marlins do call him up, the only thing I'd trust him to do at this point in his career is steal bases.
That's all for now.
Youth movement
Posted on: March 29, 2008 6:30 pm
Edited on: May 8, 2008 7:49 pm
Comments
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Posted on: March 29, 2008 6:47 pm
Youth movementI have always liked Alex Gordon, good kid and he plays on my third favorite team the Royals so it's like a win win situation. Oh and Evan Longoria is the next Chipper Jones. |






